Friday, October 3, 2008

The Electoral Map is looking very good

There is usually some difference among pollsters as to which states can be considered "leaning" and which are called "toss-ups." The way Rasmussen is calling it, at the present time, counting Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and New Hampshire as "leaning," and including them in his electoral vote total, Obama has 264 electoral votes. This means he just needs to win one of the toss-up states: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, or Virginia. [USA Today has Colorado as leaning and New Hampshire as a toss-up.]

In these toss-up states, Real Clear Politics lists the results of individual polls, and posts an average of those polls:

Virginia, with 13 electoral votes: Obama is up an average of 2.3 points
Colorado with 9 electoral votes: Obama is up an average of 4 points
North Carolina with 15 electoral votes: Obama is up by half a percentage point
Nevada with 5 electoral votes: Obama is up by an average of 1.8 points
Ohio with 20 electoral votes: Obama is up an average of 2 points
Florida with 27 electoral votes: Obama is up an average of 3 points

The McCain campaign is planning to ramp up their attacks on Obama's character, his "judgment, honesty and personal associations" according to the Washington Post. With just 4.5 weeks to go until election day, the race could still tighten up. States with a lot of electoral votes, like Virginia, FLorida, and North Carolina become very important. Even Missouri, with 11 electoral votes is important, as McCain is only up by an average of 1.7, with the most recent poll actually showing Obama up by 1.

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