Monday, October 6, 2008

Touching base with the polls

The Gallup Daily Poll has Obama holding steady at 50%, with McCain dropping one point to 42%. This poll is based on 2,744 interviews with registered voters taking place from October 3 to October 5, so it should reflect the influence of the VP debate and the Bailout passing Congress. According to Gallup, the 10 days that Obama has held this significant of a lead is the longest lead for either candidate since June.

Real Clear Politics shows Obama up an average of six points in the 12 national polls they keep track of. The Real Clear Politics electoral map is still showing Obama with 264 electoral votes and McCain with 163. The most recent poll they show for Ohio taken by the Columbus Dispatch from 9/24 to 10/23 of 2262 voters shows Obama up by 7. In polls taken on 10/3 or later, they show Obama up by an average of 4.9 in Virginia, 3 points in Florida, and 8 in New Hampshire.

The most recent Rasmussen poll in North Carolina shows Obama up by 3 points, but it was taken on September 30th. The next poll should show the influence of Obama setting up his debate camp in the beautiful town of Asheville, NC.

Blogger Chris Cillizza, the FIX on the Washington Post, has the Post's new electoral map putting Obama at 311 electoral votes. Citing the Columbus Dispatch poll, they have put Ohio safely in the Obama column. Chris is also giving Virginia to Obama, though he doesn't cite a poll, just "what we're hearing," along with this story on Politico. According to the Post's electoral map, there are NO MORE TOSSUP states; they have assigned every state to one side or the other, with just Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri going to McCain.

The bottom line is, the tossup states so far are all being tossed into the Obama column.

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