I will post more on this tomorrow, but from looking at various electoral maps tonight, it seems like Obama just needs to win Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Colorado (assuming he already has Michigan and Wisconsin). These are states in which he's leading in the polls. This would give Obama an electoral vote total of 269. I read somewhere that it is actually 269 that is needed, not 270; I'll have to check this out some more.
UPDATE: The New York Times gives Obama 255 electoral votes, with 227 for McCain and 56 electoral votes a toss up. They show Pennsylvania and Minnesota for Obama, with only 6 toss-up states: New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. Of these, Colorado is the most likely to go to Obama, then possibly Virginia, then New Hampshire.
Most of the newspapers' electoral maps are flash, so they can't be copied and pasted here. But the one I look at the most is the New York Times, and sometimes Real Clear Politics. The Washington Post used to have a different electoral map, I don't like the one they have now. For the presidential election, they show 168 electoral votes leaning for Obama, 174 leaning for McCain, and 196 swing votes. Way to cover your butt by refusing to call anything!
UPDATE: The New York Times gives Obama 255 electoral votes, with 227 for McCain and 56 electoral votes a toss up. They show Pennsylvania and Minnesota for Obama, with only 6 toss-up states: New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. Of these, Colorado is the most likely to go to Obama, then possibly Virginia, then New Hampshire.
Most of the newspapers' electoral maps are flash, so they can't be copied and pasted here. But the one I look at the most is the New York Times, and sometimes Real Clear Politics. The Washington Post used to have a different electoral map, I don't like the one they have now. For the presidential election, they show 168 electoral votes leaning for Obama, 174 leaning for McCain, and 196 swing votes. Way to cover your butt by refusing to call anything!
UPDATE: Here is the electoral map from FiveThirtyEight.com at 12:33 AM on Monday, September 29, 2008:
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